Scoring first on Sunday is crucial

On Sunday, after Manchester United swatted Arsenal off their own pitch, Sir Alex Ferguson said what we’d all seen. Sir Alex told us - after his team showed us - how good teams beat Arsenal.

“Arsenal play a lot of good football, and get to the edge of your box regularly," he said. “But if you can win the ball there - and counter-attack quickly - you'll have chances against them.”

Arsenal, as we wrote yesterday, have been worked out. Like a kid who’s cracked algebra, Manchester United turn up, do what they’ve been told, and solve the problem. They sit deep, nick the ball, and burst. Easy. Now, Arsene Wenger must make the problem harder.

The first way - and the hardest - is to score first. Arsenal’s style means, against good teams, they’re poor at coming from behind.

In the past three seasons, they’ve conceded first to Manchester United five times. Only once did they avoid defeat: the 2-2 draw in November 2007 (0% win rate after going behind). Manchester United, on the other hand, have fallen behind three times, and won twice (67%).

Similarly, in the past three seasons against Chelsea, Arsenal have conceded first three times, and won once (33%). Chelsea - like Manchester United - have gone behind three times, and won twice (67%).

If Arsenal had scored first on Sunday, the full-backs could have played as full-backs, instead of wingers; the centre-backs could have played as centre-backs, instead of midfielders; and the midfielders could have played as midfielders, instead of support strikers.

As it was - after Manchester United scored - the whole team was sucked forward, out of position, desperate to equalise. It meant that, once Sir Alex’s team won the ball and played it forwards, they were playing against two, perhaps three defenders.

It was too easy. Arsenal’s defence, goalkeeper included, is bad enough with everyone in position.

Of course, scoring first isn’t a tactic, any more than “win the game” is. It’s a given, a presumed aim. But seeing as, statistically, it’s more important for Arsenal to score first, they should show more conviction.

Arsenal are the best attacking team in England, so they think they can score at any time. Against poor teams, like Bolton, they can. Against good teams, like Manchester United and Chelsea, they can’t.

Too often, goal chances in the first half are treated with contempt. Doesn’t matter if we don’t attack this corner, they think. We’ve got 80 minutes to score yet.

How many times, for example, have we seen Arsenal treat chances in the first 15 minutes as trial runs; experiments where something’s allowed to go wrong? After you, Tomas. No, after you Abou. Oh dear, we’ve lost the ball! Still - plenty of time yet!

Consider this: in the Premier League this season, Arsenal have scored one goal in the first 15 minutes. In the last 15, they’ve scored 14. The 2001 - 2005 team, by contrast, used to kill teams before their shorts were dirty.

Arsenal, of course, must do plenty of things to beat Chelsea on Sunday: defend well, and in numbers; attack well, but with restraint; maybe - just maybe - score from a corner.

But, you imagine, the most important thing is to score first. It’s hard to see last season, when Robin van Persie took charge, being repeated.